Synopsis: Yesterday was indeed a down day with the upper level pattern in transition mode with the Monsoon ridge migrating towards the Four Corners region. Fortunately for us, the setup has evolved rather quickly with moisture already returning to the region and steady southeasterly steering flow now in place. It will likely be an active afternoon/evening across the Mogollon Rim and across southern AZ. Most model guidance then has secondary storms expanding west/north into portions of Maricopa County tonight-early morning hours Wed. Any stronger storms that do form will be capable of damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall leading to localized flash/urban flooding.
For today plan on mainly sunny skies through the early evening before increasing clouds/storm chances. Afternoon temperatures will again warm into the 103˚F-105˚F range around the Valley. Light and variable winds will likely give way to gusty evening conditions with perhaps blowing dust from any storm outflows. As covered above, storm chances will peak tonight through the overnight hours with storm motions to the west/northwest. Given the amount of moisture in place and slower storm motion, localized rainfall totals between 1.00”-2.00” are possible with any stronger storms that are able to survive on the lower deserts. Conditions will be monitored closely.
For tomorrow plan on morning cloudiness from overnight activity and muggy conditions. Daytime highs will take a step back into the 99˚F-101˚F range around the Valley under pockets of afternoon sun. Tomorrow’s setup will largely depend on what ends up happening tonight. An active overnight will likely lead to a down day as the atmosphere recharges, otherwise game on! Near normal temperatures and increased storm chances will persist into Thursday with the pattern remaining unchanged before a likely drying trend into this upcoming weekend.